Commercial Banking Elliott Wave: 5th Wave to 1,860 Target

Commercial Banking sector completes a triangle and launches a bullish 5th wave, targeting the 1,770‑1,860 zone with stop‑loss now at 1,407.

Signal: bullish

Current Elliott Wave count: Wave 2nd running or 4th

• Preferred levels:
• Target: 1770-1860
• Stop Loss: 1477
• Invalidation: 1407

• Alternative 1 levels:
• Invalidation: 1755

In our previous analysis we discussed a fourth‑wave triangle as an alternative count. The price action is now confirming that scenario: a fourth‑wave triangle is forming, setting up a rising fifth wave. We’ll keep trailing the stop‑loss, which is currently at 1,477, and the count will be invalidated if the price falls below 1,407 on the downside. The upside target for the fifth wave is the 1,770‑1,860 zone, assuming the move isn’t truncated or extended. Accordingly, we have switched our earlier preferred count to this alternative count.

Alternatively, the bearish count remains valid if the price cannot break above the 1755 zone. For now, we may see a modest rally that completes the Y wave beneath the X wave, after which the downtrend is likely to resume.