Before the Turn

Volume, breadth, sectors, bank results and new listings before NEPSE’s tops and bottoms — our own data, to 2 Nov 2026

1. Volume spikes at tops and dries up at bottoms

Across NEPSE’s 10%+ turns, 12 sector indices and more than 2,300 stock tops, the same picture repeats.

In 71% of NEPSE tops a day of twice-normal volume came within 5 days. The heaviest trading comes in the first 5–8 days AFTER the top — the sellers’ rush. Bottoms are the mirror: volume halves (0.5×), and the biggest panic selling came about 34 sessions BEFORE the low.

2. When the signs come together

With NEPSE within 2% of its 60-day high: hot volume, the A/D line lagging (fewer stocks joining) and the Float index lagging — how many showed?

Bollinger mid band (21 days): after a top the first close below it came about 6 sessions later, ~5.6% off the top — with ~14% of the fall still ahead. After a low, the mirror: first close above it ~6 sessions in, ~5% up, ~18% of the rise still ahead. But it breaks falsely often — always keep a stop.

3. Who makes the last push?

At 21 tops since 2012, in the last 20 sessions investment, development banks, life insurance and finance beat NEPSE, while hotels and “others” lagged — and held up better after the top.

On days NEPSE was near its high with this “speculative sectors leading” sign on, an 8%+ fall followed within 60 sessions 50% of the time — 19% without it.

4. The day the banks report

“The market falls when the banks report” — in 11 quarters since 2023, on the day most banks reported NEPSE fell 9 times (median −0.8%; a normal day −0.04%). Over the next 5 sessions it fell 8 of 11 times. After 20 sessions it was mixed — a short sell-off, not a trend change. (The sample is small.)

5. New listings: when to sell?

In 65 listings since 2012 that hit the up-limit 3+ days: the circuit days trade only a few hundred kitta. Then comes the first day with 10× that volume — the listing top never came before that day, and 46% of the time it came within 3 sessions of it. From that day’s close the worst point in the next 60 sessions was a median −20%, and 120 sessions after the top a median −27%.

Where to use it

These signs show every day in the “Top / bottom warning” on Market Summary and Broker’s Ground → Volume Warnings — with the new-listing sell signs and the bank results season. If a new listing in your portfolio reaches its sell sign, your portfolio shows it.

Patterns from the past, not promises — every table is odds. Data: NEPSE daily since 2000, stocks and sector indices, ShareSansar results news since Nov 2022.